Volume 11 Issue 1

Application of Systems Thinking and System Dynamics to Conceptual Frameworks for Impact Assessment of Agricultural Programs in Nigeria

Wakawa

Abstract

This paper explores the integration of Systems Thinking and System Dynamics modelling into conceptual frameworks for impact assessment of agricultural programs, addressing the limitations of traditional linear planning models in navigating the complex, interrelated challenges faced by modern agricultural systems. Utilising tools like Comodel and Loopy tool to develop causal loop diagrams, the study revealed how these models and frameworks impact agricultural programs by providing a holistic lens for understanding interconnectedness and a rigorous, simulation-based approach for testing dynamic hypotheses. The findings demonstrate that this integrated approach enables a crucial shift from reactive to proactive planning, enhancing ability to manage uncertainty, complexity, and illustrating how strategic interventions can trigger cascades of positive effects on technology adoption, food security, and household well-being. Consequently, the paper recommends adopting systemic methods that foster inclusivity and sustainability in future agricultural program design and impact assessment, ensuring frameworks that genuinely reflect real-world complexities of agricultural development.

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